工业自动化设备属于智能装备是“十二五”期间国家重点扶持发展的战略性新兴产业(2010年10月《国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》)。但是在发展中,工业自动化设备行业还存在一定的风险,并在2015年呈现新的发展趋势。
1、市场风险。
国内工业自动化市场厂商数量众多,跨国公司占据大部分高端市场,而国内企业除少数规模较大的品牌公司外,大部分中小企业主要在中低端市场进行竞争,导致市场竞争较为激烈。接下来如新进入企业增加、行业竞争进一步加剧,则将会对行业内现有企业的盈利状况造成不利影响。
2、技术风险。
工业自动化行业技术含量较高,行业中的国际大公司在该领域拥有十分深厚的技术积累,并持续保持较高的研发投入,国内企业虽然经过二十多年的发展,在部分领域已逐步迎头赶上,但在一些关键元器件和部件的生产制造方面与国际厂商还存在较大的差距。接下来,国内企业如不能在技术研发方面逐步缩小与国家厂商的差距,则将始终居于行业价值链的下游,在竞争中处于不利地位。
3、产业链不完善的风险。
国内工业自动化行业产业链尚不够完善:受传统体制和观念的影响,行业中依然存在着“重研究开发、轻产业化”的倾向,很多技术成果出不了试验室,最终被束之高阁;国家投入资金有限,企业和研究机构缺乏资本运作、风险投资的意识和能力;与工业自动化相关的原材料加工、元器件制造行业的技术水平低,难以提供支持。而在国外的工业自动化领域,基础研究、产业化、生产制造已经形成了一套完整的体系:很多跨国公司将研发机构设在欧、美、日等科技发达、技术人才密集的国家和地区;将产业化工作放在中国台湾、新加坡等地,这些地区有大批早年做OEM起家的企业,在把基础技术转化为成熟产品方面积累了丰富经验,而成本要比欧美日低很多;当产品进入稳定期,大批量的生产制造工作就转入设在中国、马来西亚、印尼等发展中国家成本更低的工厂来完成。行业产业链不完善对我国自动化行业的长远发展存在明显的负面影响。
发展趋势
工业自动化设备属于智能装备的范畴,是“十二五”期间国家重点扶持发展的战略性新兴产业(2010年10月《国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》)。在未来五年里,伴随着人口红利消失和原材料、能源成本的上涨,中国制造业将经历由粗放型、低附加值模式向集约型、高附加值模式的历史性转变。作为高端制造业的“基石”,工业自动化装备面临着传统产业改造提升、新兴产业发展需求双重机遇,其中我们判断行业内将出现两条显著的高速成长主线:1、高端智能装备加速成长:前期渗透率已经较高的数控机床、过程自动化系统、变频器等产品增速在明显放缓,而随着低端劳动力成本加速上行、产业升级进入白热阶段,“替代人工”属性更强、前期渗透率较低的“高端智能装备”(如工业机器人、自动化装配线、自动化仓储设备等)有望越过产品导入期、进入高速成长期,未来5年保持年均20-30%的快速增长。
本土自动化龙头崛起:受益于国家支持国产化率提升的政策意图、关键零部件的突破,掌握核心技术、研发能力强劲的国内自动化装备企业)有望加快进口替代的速度,实现超过行业平均的高速成长。
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