10年至11年,我国低压变频器市场的增长速度都超过15%,远超过同期的GDP增速,主要原因在于“四万亿投资”的刺激,市场的应用领域也在不断扩大,用户端需求也越来越多样化。
2012-2013年是分水岭,业绩下滑较严重,主要原因在于“四万亿投资”已经接近尾声,企业资金短缺,许多变频器订单被取消。
2014年,中国工业逐渐趋于稳定,与民生、消费相关的行业(例如食品饮料、包装、电子等行业)处于稳定增长,带动OEM行业自动化市场的回暖。
长期而言,即未来的3-5年,低压变频器市场仍将处于稳定增长状态,增长均速在5-6%。快速增长行业集中在基础建设、油气管网建设、清洁能源行业,变频器存量市场也将成为拉动低压变频器增长的一大动力。
B.市场份额
2014年变频器市场份额和排名情况如下:
第一集团以ABB、西门子为代表。市场规模范围在15亿以上,重点涉及领域为高端及中端市场应用领域,其市场特点为产品线全,功率段覆盖范围广,产品主要应用于项目型市场及高端OEM市场。
第二集团以汇川、台达、安川、施耐德以及三菱为代表,市场规模范围为10亿左右,其所有市场都会涉及,但是专注于OEM和高端风机泵类市场的群体,竞争日趋激烈。一方面西门子等高端公司开始进一步重视中端市场;另一方面,低端的市场的成长威胁日益加重,其产品应用于各行业。可以预测,这一集团的厂商数量会进一步增加,而价格则存在向低端市场滑落的可能性。
第三集团:这里主要指艾默生、罗克韦尔和森兰等,市场规模范围为2-5亿,由于规模相差不多,所以排名和份额也不明朗。重点涉及中端及低端市场的应用领域,产品应用主要集中于OEM机械设备中。
最后是本土的零散供应商,数目仍在增加,除去少数几个技术导向的公司,多数公司没有明确的成长目标和潜力。市场仍在无序竞争中。
C.分析与评论
变频器市场分额的首要特点是分散,亿元以上供应商接近30家,而其他较小厂商(多为本土)则以百计。其中,ABB,西门子市场占比最大。
2014年ABB、富士、海泰克业绩表现较差。ABB14年同比增长0.7%,ABB工程变频下滑较为严重,多个工程取消及延后严重影响ABB变频器业绩。
富士14年同比略有增长,增幅1.8%。富士因为渠道整合不成功,渠道管理较混乱,许多代理商放弃富士的代理,影响业绩增长。
海泰克内部政策和渠道管理较混乱,再加上14年工程行业订单少导致14年同比下滑17%。
2014年西门子、三菱、汇川、英威腾低压变频器快速增长。
西门子2014年同比增长14.7%,业绩增长主要集中在上半年。西门子上半年变频器大幅度增长的主要原因是西门子去年将物流中心从上海搬至苏州,下半年未能及时给代理商交货,导致代理商2014年上半年大量进货。
2014年英威腾同比增长13%,2014年英威腾接了一些大项目,抢到安川流失的电梯行业客户也是增长的一大原因,另外在电梯行业发展较快。
D.中端市场的竞争
由于高端市场(大传动、提升负载)的门槛较高,使得中端市场的供应商很难在短期内企及。而中端市场(高端风机泵类以及OEM)的巨大规模则吸引着高端供应商自上而下,以及低端供应商的向上冲击。
可以预见,在未来一段时间,中端市场竞争将更加激烈。首先受影响的是价格,但长远而言,更先进的生意模式和客户服务才是取得成功的关键。
FOXBORO I/A SERIES MAGNETIC FLOW TRANSMITTER IMT25-PDADB10N-AB 102983
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FOXBORO I/A SERIES 120VAC INPUT EXPANDER DM400YP FBM 13 REV. -0C
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